Why Are Some Retail Inserts More Valuable Than Hobby Inserts?

2000 Skybox Dominion Eye On October Warp Tek #EOWT, Individually #'d to 35

I know this is contrary to common sense, particularly given the way 'hobby-only' inserts are promoted by the manufacturers. But if you actually examine this issue, you'll discover that some 'retail-only' inserts are more difficult, more rare, and a better long-term value for your collecting dollars.

So the question is - why? Well, you have to start this examination by looking at the way retail inserts are sold and ultimately disseminated throughout the hobby. Like all retail-only cards the product lines are specially produced to meet the demands of large corporate chains like Wal-Mart, K-Mart, Target, Toy-R-Us, Kaybee, etc. Manufacturers offer something that cannot be found anyplace else except in their stores - a direct contrast to specialty shops which deal only in sports collectibles a.k.a "The Hobby Shops". So let's examine one of my favorites: The 2000 Skybox Dominion Eye On October retail chase program. A series of cards that drove me completely bananas for a very long time.

A few years back I was going Christmas shopping for my nieces and nephew, they were at that age where toys and games are the most important things in life, so I was at a local Kaybee Toys store pushing thru the holiday crowds for those special gifts. It was one of the first times I had experienced this since being a kid myself all those decades ago. And while I enjoyed the holiday environment, what caught me by surprise was encountering a small shelf filled with trading card boxes. All the brands were represented, both sports and non-sports, in opened boxes of various states of wear and tear. Some were obviously freshly opened, their packs still neatly stacked and untouched, others so mauled through that it looked like Sasquatch was searching for food.

As I was standing there, studying the mêlée of packs and boxes, a couple of kids cut in front of me. They were eagerly grabbing and studiously looking at the pack imagery, holding onto some and quickly tossing the others back. Some in their right boxes, most not. This went on for about two minutes when their mother caught up with them, threw me a quick cautious look with the unspoken: What's an older man doing in a toy store anyway? ("Hey lady, it's friggin' Christmas! How 'bout some friggin' holiday cheer?!") No, I didn't really say that, although I was sorely tempted. <lol> Anyway, she started to pull at her sons but they quickly squirmed away replying, "No, this is what we want mom!" and "How many can we have?!". There was some fairly loud debate about prices, but ultimately it was settled on five packs each, much to the disappointment of both boys. They grabbed their share of the booty and went off to the clerk.

I was left studying their aftermath. The few boxes that were initially, for the most part intact, now seamlessly blended into the mess. Upper Deck Baseball packs sitting inside a Magic The Gathering box; Ultra Basketball mixed in with Star Wars and packs from some weird Japanese cartoon show; a box of Topps Finest Football which contained packs from so many other product lines that the contrasting color scheme looked like an elf barfed his cookies into it.

After picking up a few packs of UD Baseball and Skybox Dominion Baseball I moved on to find that perfect gift. Later, relaxing back into my favorite chair at the office, I opened the bag which contained my share of the booty. I was eager to see if I was lucky enough to have busted an insert and was shocked when I opened them up. No, I didn't get a good insert. What caught me off guard was the condition of the cards. They were bent and heavily dinged - all of them. Each and every pack I had purchased was in such a terrible condition that the cards, even the few minor inserts, were virtually worthless from a collectible standpoint. And then I remembered the shelf and the disarray I encountered earlier. The packs were so mishandled, and not just by the two kids that cut in front of me, but by all the customers rummaging through them. It was at that moment I realized that it wasn't just this particular store or even chain of stores that would be affected by this kind of mangling. Every retail outlet that offered trading cards would likely see a similar, or worse, situation. That's when I began to really think about retail-only inserts in a way that's contrary to what is commonly accepted.

Consider: Let's take 100 Retail Packs and follow a common set of likely events.

Of the 100 packs - figure a full third (33%) will be mishandled by either the customers or the staff putting out the product on a public shelf. How, why, and to what extend is irrelevant - that the cards are damaged in some way is the bottom line. That's one third 'gone' from the collecting stream, and no longer possible to be found in "mint" condition. Figure another 10-15% is never going to be opened. Even sold as loss-leaders and eventually to a reseller who purchases bulk unsold product - some portion will never see the light of day. And figure another 10-15% will be opened by someone other than a true collector; some screaming moronic kid that luckily gets the "key" insert - only to mishandle, damage, or just plain lose it. That leaves roughly 33 of the original 100 packs that will somehow escape damage, not end up in a commons bin, never opened, or lost to someone who didn't understand what they were so fortunate to bust.

Now, let's consider those remaining 33 packs.

Of those, statistically speaking, only a portion will have the potential to contain the "key" insert - usually an autograph or serial numbered card. And presuming all thirty-three of those packs are busted by true collectors, which again we're speaking statistically, whatever the original odds were (set by the manufacturers) are further broken down by a 1/3 percentage of the total yield. Meaning that only a third of whatever potential was out there in the original 100 packs can be considered "live" - the potential for busting the key insert(s). So if the odds were originally set at say...1 in every 240 packs (a fairly common practice of 1 insert every 10 retail boxes)- of that, your chances as a genuine collector, are reduced to a third. Meaning your real odds are closer to 1 in every 720 packs. And try this one on: Topps typically puts their "key" retail inserts in ratios from 1:800-something to 1:5,000-something. Take that stated insert ratio number and multiply by 3 - that's what you're really facing.

So when you look at retail-only inserts that reach the secondary market (like eBay) - what you're looking at is the result of a statistical anomaly. So many random events had to have occurred: Escaping damage when put on the public shelves, escaping more damage from customers mishandling the product, escaping the hands of customers unaware of the value of the insert, escaping irresponsible collectors, escaping future anonymity by never being opened, and ultimately "escaping" to the hands of someone who can and will appreciate it's true value.

The result is fairly daunting.

Whenever I look at a retail-only insert - I only have to look at my own collecting experiences to know that they're harder to get. And even harder to get in anything close to mint condition. Remember that when you're considering purchasing one.

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